PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 507 bans
Puck
499 picks · 981 bans
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 521 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 199 bans
Marci
378 picks · 687 bans
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 308 bans
Mars
306 picks · 510 bans
Monkey King
296 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:25
Fnatic 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Fnatic — the game was taken by beastcoast in 45:12.
Game 2prediction missed11:26
Fnatic 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Fnatic — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:44.
Game 3prediction missed21:39
Fnatic 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Fnatic — the game was taken by beastcoast in 45:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3