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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lion
NARMAN · 19 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 522 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 186 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
310 picks · 247 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 668 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
261 picks · 744 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 399 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 312 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
228 picks · 149 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total66% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Fnatic 66%Neon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:09.
Game 2prediction missed17:30
Fnatic 66%Neon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:59.
Game 3prediction correct
Fnatic 66%Neon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 66%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3