Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 328 bans
Mars
413 picks · 601 bans
Queen of Pain
348 picks · 423 bans
Weaver
345 picks · 778 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 182 bans
Kunkka
271 picks · 451 bans
Spirit Breaker
265 picks · 390 bans
Ember Spirit
245 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Fnatic 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 35:36.
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Fnatic 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 50:38.
Game 3prediction correct9:18
Fnatic 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 42:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 63%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3