Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
580 picks · 454 bans
Mars
427 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
395 picks · 516 bans
Puck
390 picks · 856 bans
Bane
376 picks · 252 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 622 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total50% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
Fnatic 50%T1 50%
The model gave 50% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 33:35.
Game 2prediction correct25:24
Fnatic 50%T1 50%
The model gave 50% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 39:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 50%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2