The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 20 games
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
518 picks · 400 bans
Marci
461 picks · 708 bans
Death Prophet
306 picks · 470 bans
Undying
293 picks · 495 bans
Puck
289 picks · 701 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 395 bans
Enigma
260 picks · 837 bans
Snapfire
257 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:32
Fnatic 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 56:37.
Game 2prediction missed40:18
Fnatic 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2