The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 22 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Ori · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
514 picks · 399 bans
Marci
457 picks · 699 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 468 bans
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
Undying
286 picks · 489 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 132 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 874 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total81% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Fnatic 19%Team Aster 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 59:34.
Game 2prediction correct38:38
Fnatic 19%Team Aster 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:05:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 81%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2