ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 16 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 13 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Razorsignature
zai · 13 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 552 bans
Puck
520 picks · 1039 bans
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 588 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 391 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:49
Fnatic 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:10.
Game 2prediction missed43:30
Fnatic 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Accuracy by game0 of 2