Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Mirana
Moon · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
293 picks · 435 bans
Tidehunter
271 picks · 405 bans
Monkey King
266 picks · 680 bans
Bane
262 picks · 199 bans
Weaver
241 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
217 picks · 255 bans
Lina
213 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 68%
Hero pool strength64% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:18
Fnatic 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:12.
Game 2prediction correct20:15
Fnatic 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 58%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2