Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 440 bans
Mars
461 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
Bane
408 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 569 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 623 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 27%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total52% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:14
Fnatic 52%Team SMG 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:13.
Game 2prediction missed22:7
Fnatic 52%Team SMG 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 52%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2