?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MidOne · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 336 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 333 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
253 picks · 249 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
232 picks · 186 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 148 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 517 bans
52%
Silencer
Silencer
186 picks · 207 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
186 picks · 107 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:21
Fnatic 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:33.
Game 2prediction missed43:41
Fnatic 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 58:04.
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Fnatic 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 53:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3