ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
457 picks · 626 bans
Bane
455 picks · 281 bans
Tiny
425 picks · 484 bans
Sand King
394 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 518 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 65%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total72% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Fnatic 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:11.
Game 2prediction correct33:26
Fnatic 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 72%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2