The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 23 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Banesignature
Panda · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 392 bans
Marci
433 picks · 666 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
Puck
290 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 398 bans
Undying
259 picks · 462 bans
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
249 picks · 845 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 37%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Fnatic 32%Thunder Awaken 68%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:12.
Game 2prediction correct38:7
Fnatic 32%Thunder Awaken 68%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2