Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 10 games
Mirana
Tims · 9 games
Tiny
Gabbi · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Lion
Boomy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
396 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
374 picks · 595 bans
Lion
358 picks · 187 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 363 bans
Void Spirit
325 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 688 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:25
Fnatic 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:49.
Game 2prediction missed29:20
Fnatic 53%TNC Predator 47%
The model gave 53% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 47:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 53%
Series resultTNC Predator 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2