BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XERXIAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
513 picks · 349 bans
Tusk
489 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
477 picks · 420 bans
Treant Protector
360 picks · 416 bans
Mirana
354 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
306 picks · 161 bans
Ember Spirit
278 picks · 688 bans
Pangolier
267 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:43
Fnatic 61%XERXIA 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by XERXIA in 51:51.
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Fnatic 61%XERXIA 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by XERXIA in 31:24.
Game 3prediction missed35:32
Fnatic 61%XERXIA 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by XERXIA in 50:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 61%
Series resultXERXIA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3