Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GateKeptwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
For Fun
No games played over 6 months.
GateKept
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 483 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1033 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 980 bans
Doom
400 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
Undying
391 picks · 610 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% For Fun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% GateKept
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:58
For Fun 39%GateKept 61%
The model gave 61% on GateKept — the game was taken by GateKept in 46:56.
Game 2prediction correct12:42
For Fun 39%GateKept 61%
The model gave 61% on GateKept — the game was taken by GateKept in 32:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteGateKept · 61%
Series resultGateKept 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2