PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Foward Observation Groupwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Foward Observation Group
No games played over 6 months.
AcatSuki
Mirana
Kiri · 6 games
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 5 games
Sven
NeKo · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Kiri · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Elder Titan
Yor · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 315 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 885 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Foward Observation Group
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% AcatSuki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Foward Observation Group 43%AcatSuki 57%
The model gave 57% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by Foward Observation Group.
Game 2prediction missed
Foward Observation Group 43%AcatSuki 57%
The model gave 57% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by Foward Observation Group.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcatSuki · 57%
Series resultFoward Observation Group 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2