Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs predictionFGFracasados Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TFTeam Faithloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fracasados Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Faith
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
545 picks · 368 bans
Queen of Pain
478 picks · 570 bans
Mars
446 picks · 599 bans
Weaver
425 picks · 779 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 174 bans
Kunkka
343 picks · 540 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 571 bans
Wraith King
286 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Fracasados Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Fracasados Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteFracasados Gaming · 53%
Series resultFracasados Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect