ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 19 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 17 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 13 games
Muertasignature
Michael · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Muerta
Scofield · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 387 bans
Clockwerk
435 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 502 bans
Lion
391 picks · 204 bans
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 629 bans
Phoenix
377 picks · 425 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
Beastmaster
346 picks · 883 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total72% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Fusion 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLeostyle
MagnusYuma
Phantom AssassinMnz
Lina4nalog
DawnbreakerFrank
TimbersawWisper
Ogre MagiPrada
ChenKJ
BatriderMichael
MuertaScofield
Game 2prediction correct16:31
Fusion 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMnz
BristlebackYuma
SlardarFrank
TimbersawWisper
PhoenixPrada
Ember Spirit4nalog
Storm SpiritLeostyle
ClockwerkScofield
HoodwinkMichael
BatriderKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 72%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2