DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perro Negroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Phoenix
Prada · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
Perro Negro
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Wits · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 509 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 416 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Fusion 59%Perro Negro 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMnz
GyrocopterWits
MagnusLeostyle
Night Stalkerkendallx
VisageFrank
EnchantressMjz
BatriderMichael
LichPrada
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Fusion 58%Perro Negro 42%
The model gave 58% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMnz
Dragon KnightWits
Primal BeastFrank
Visagekendallx
PangolierLeostyle
JakiroMjz
PhoenixPrada
Nyx AssassinMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 68%
Series resultFusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2