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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Perro Negroloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 16 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 15 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 12 games
33%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Michael · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 9 games
56%

Perro Negro

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
0%
Lich
Lich
Mjz · 2 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
473 picks · 386 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 546 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 501 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 626 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
389 picks · 204 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
374 picks · 423 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
343 picks · 882 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Fusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:35
Fusion 64%Perro Negro 36%
The model gave 64% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 56:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMnz
59% · 9 games37% · 49 games
Phantom AssassinWits
Phantom Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFrank
48% · 17 games51% · 120 games
DawnbreakerOscar
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLeostyle
63% · 47 games43% · 16 games
AbaddonMjz
Abaddon
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
46% · 54 games
Muerta
MuertaMichael
62% · 58 games
Game 2prediction missed21:40
Fusion 66%Perro Negro 34%
The model gave 66% on Fusion — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
55% · 111 games44% · 72 games
Phantom AssassinWits
Phantom Assassin
Ursa
UrsaMnz
44% · 54 games44% · 334 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyLeostyle
57% · 184 games51% · 368 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Batrider
BatriderPrada
51% · 196 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMichael
59% · 229 games
Game 3prediction correct22:17
Fusion 67%Perro Negro 33%
The model gave 67% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMnz
45% · 185 games55% · 75 games
UrsaWits
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
56% · 113 games49% · 222 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracLeostyle
47% · 55 games50% · 247 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Lion
LionMichael
53% · 127 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
42% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 79%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3