ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PMPupa mas 5loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 6 games
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Michael · 3 games
Phoenix
Prada · 3 games
Pupa mas 5
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 530 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 364 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 438 bans
Luna
311 picks · 363 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 563 bans
Dark Willow
273 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 342 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 949 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Pupa mas 5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Fusion 67%Pupa mas 5 33%
The model gave 67% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 28:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 67%
Series resultFusion 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1