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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Future Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Future Gaming

Leshrac
Leshrac
Shanks · 2 games
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
rayy · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
rayy · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
100%
Sand King
Sand King
Irving · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
0%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 25 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 667 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
414 picks · 409 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
350 picks · 723 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 618 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 523 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
301 picks · 588 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:10
Future Gaming 26%Yakult Brothers 74%
The model gave 74% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Future Gaming in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckShanks
54% · 190 games47% · 73 games
Phantom Assassinflyfly
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawIrving
57% · 237 games46% · 205 games
Dragon KnightEmo
Dragon Knight
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrayy
57% · 121 game48% · 122 games
Sand Kingzeal
Sand King
46% · 38 games
TinkerOli
Tinker
35% · 110 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct19:38
Future Gaming 24%Yakult Brothers 76%
The model gave 76% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainShanks
39% · 91 game63% · 39 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Medusa
MedusaIrving
40% · 107 games56% · 88 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrayy
51% · 138 games62% · 72 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
68% · 23 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
47% · 114 games
JakiroOli
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct18:45
Future Gaming 26%Yakult Brothers 74%
The model gave 74% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckShanks
58% · 180 games40% · 54 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Enigma
EnigmaIrving
54% · 131 game50% · 44 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionrayy
56% · 107 games51% · 110 games
Bristlebackzeal
Bristleback
41% · 156 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
39% · 54 games
RingmasterOli
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 90%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3