The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OWOld Warriorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Old Warrior
Primal Beastoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Setsu · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Clockwerk
QYQX · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 1 game
Earthshaker
Kaka · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kaka · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 745 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 629 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 414 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 744 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1030 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Old Warrior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:14
G2 Invictus Gaming 88%Old Warrior 12%
The model gave 88% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Old Warrior in 49:06.
Game 2prediction missed26:21
G2 Invictus Gaming 88%Old Warrior 12%
The model gave 88% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Old Warrior in 44:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 88%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2