The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 14 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Ws · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 379 bans
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 533 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 746 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 757 bans
Phoenix
308 picks · 649 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total70% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
G2 Invictus Gaming 70%Talon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:27.
Game 2prediction missed30:34
G2 Invictus Gaming 70%Talon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 70%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2