PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Tusk
yamich · 12 games
Rubick
Ekki · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 212 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 619 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 736 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 157 bans
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 542 bans
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 319 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 724 bans
Mars
335 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:19.
Game 2prediction missed29:37
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:59.
Game 3prediction missed4:26
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 65%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3