The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
411 picks · 380 bans
Hoodwink
385 picks · 427 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 539 bans
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 742 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 753 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
G2 Invictus Gaming 29%Tundra Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:45.
Game 2prediction correct15:2
G2 Invictus Gaming 29%Tundra Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 15:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2