The International 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
Sniper
Quinn · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 18 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 17 games
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
Broodmothersignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
1w Team
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 36 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 32 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 28 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 22 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 375 bans
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 530 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 749 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 768 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 642 bans
Phoenix
309 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:21
Gaimin Gladiators 63%1w Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
Queen of PainQuinn
SvenMunkushi~
SlardarAce
Primal BeastCloud
ChenSeleri
Weaverswedenstrong
RubicktOfu
EnchantressRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct35:11
Gaimin Gladiators 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
RazorMunkushi~
WindrangerQuinn
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
KunkkaAce
EnigmaCloud
SnipertOfu
Marciswedenstrong
JakiroSeleri
EnchantressRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 75%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2