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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 44 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 31 game
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 26 games
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 23 games
74%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 22 games
73%

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 37 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
919 picks · 673 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
577 picks · 440 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 429 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
507 picks · 805 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
466 picks · 1094 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
462 picks · 335 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
456 picks · 334 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
453 picks · 1025 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:34
Gaimin Gladiators 69%9Pandas 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindyrachyo
52% · 164 games53% · 146 games
BloodseekerRAMZES666
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
45% · 338 games49% · 730 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordAce
49% · 105 games53% · 50 games
Bounty HunterMieRo
Bounty Hunter
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
54% · 246 games50% · 323 games
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickSeleri
45% · 552 games51% · 156 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Gaimin Gladiators 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
56% · 135 games47% · 115 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Tiny
TinyQuinn
48% · 356 games55% · 242 games
Monkey KingRAMZES666
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordAce
44% · 76 games53% · 31 game
Bounty HunterMieRo
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilencerSeleri
49% · 128 games50% · 138 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Techies
TechiestOfu
45% · 73 games51% · 242 games
Crystal MaidenRodjER
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 83%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2