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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 31 game
61%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 26 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 23 games
48%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
85%
Pugna
Pugna
天命 · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
天命 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 382 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
171 picks · 156 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
167 picks · 71 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 236 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
150 picks · 86 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:9
Gaimin Gladiators 68%Azure Ray 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 22:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
48% · 36 games51% · 101 game
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
54% · 198 games54% · 19 games
Outworld DestroyerSomnus
Outworld Destroyer
Underlord
UnderlordAce
53% · 69 games42% · 57 games
Centaur WarrunnerChalice
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenSeleri
52% · 37 games51% · 71 game
Muertafy
Muerta
Pugna
PugnatOfu
51% · 94 games45% · 186 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct33:5
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Azure Ray 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverdyrachyo
47% · 22 games52% · 42 games
KunkkaSomnus
Kunkka
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAce
57% · 14 games39% · 63 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
57% · 13 games49% · 72 games
Pugnafy
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
48% · 191 game59% · 23 games
BrewmasterChalice
Brewmaster
Muerta
MuertatOfu
51% · 65 games53% · 105 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 80%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2