The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 39 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 29 games
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 29 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 434 bans
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 268 bans
Sven
187 picks · 259 bans
Beastmaster
174 picks · 370 bans
Skywrath Mage
174 picks · 106 bans
Dark Seer
172 picks · 322 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 32%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Gaimin Gladiators 86%beastcoast 14%
The model gave 86% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:30.
Game 2prediction correct28:23
Gaimin Gladiators 86%beastcoast 14%
The model gave 86% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 86%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2