The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 13 games
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
597 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
570 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
400 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
397 picks · 248 bans
Death Prophet
385 picks · 595 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total51% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Entity 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:39.
Game 2prediction correct21:6
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Entity 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 51%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2