Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 39 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 37 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 35 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
Evil Geniuses
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 33 games
Rubick
Matthew · 32 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Silencersignature
Panda · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
510 picks · 329 bans
Doom
451 picks · 977 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 931 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 857 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:27
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Evil Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinQuinn
MorphlingPakazs
Dark SeerAce
Legion CommanderWisper
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Primal BeastChris Luck
EnchantressSeleri
MarciMatthew
BatridertOfu
UndyingPanda
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorQuinn
SvenPakazs
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
LeshracChris Luck
UnderlordAce
DoomWisper
LiontOfu
BatriderMatthew
IoSeleri
UndyingPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2