Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Banesignature
tOfu · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 21 game
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
Marssignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
Grimstroke
tOfu · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 16 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 452 bans
Mars
493 picks · 701 bans
Bane
466 picks · 288 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
364 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Goonsquad 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:05.
Game 2prediction correct27:8
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Goonsquad 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 57%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2