Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MooN teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 23 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
Marssignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
Grimstroke
tOfu · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 16 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 451 bans
Mars
464 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 544 bans
Bane
404 picks · 286 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 595 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 630 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 654 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 66%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:43
Gaimin Gladiators 65%MooN team 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:09.
Game 2prediction correct13:24
Gaimin Gladiators 65%MooN team 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 65%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2