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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 27 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 14 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 14 games
57%

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
bengan · 26 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 24 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 22 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
516 picks · 692 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 561 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 603 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 406 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 556 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 950 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 231 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Gaimin Gladiators 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
44% · 82 games54% · 157 games
Monkey KingLowskill
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
45% · 319 games56% · 150 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Doom
DoomAce
49% · 217 games48% · 13 games
AbaddonForce
Abaddon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamantOfu
41% · 57 games58% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinLelis
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
49% · 37 games52% · 277 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Gaimin Gladiators 75%MOUZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaQuinn
49% · 143 games46% · 286 games
MorphlingLowskill
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
55% · 352 games45% · 205 games
Earth SpiritCopy
Earth Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
56% · 130 games45% · 322 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
60% · 165 games48% · 370 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
53% · 420 games38% · 27 games
RikiLelis
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 89%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2