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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
61%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
33%
Lich
Lichsignature
Seleri · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
60%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 15 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
545 picks · 755 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
508 picks · 579 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
499 picks · 621 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
494 picks · 586 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 413 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
454 picks · 991 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
453 picks · 807 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 625 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:31
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Night Pulse 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanAce
53% · 94 games47% · 31 game
SlarkKami
Slark
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
38% · 109 games55% · 142 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
51% · 189 games44% · 288 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
50% · 153 games55% · 40 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Chen
ChenSeleri
57% · 123 games49% · 167 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed17:34
Gaimin Gladiators 59%Night Pulse 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 53:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyQuinn
53% · 512 games47% · 422 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
52% · 319 games57% · 101 game
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
49% · 355 games46% · 535 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
58% · 159 games47% · 318 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
52% · 242 games41% · 211 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 68%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2