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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 39 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 31 game
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 29 games
55%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 29 games
90%

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
29%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magesignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 415 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 264 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 254 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
168 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Gaimin Gladiators 54%nouns 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by nouns in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
45% · 12 games46% · 60 games
Naga SirenK1
Naga Siren
Earthshaker
EarthshakerQuinn
47% · 82 games50% · 103 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Spectre
Spectredyrachyo
52% · 13 games43% · 6 games
Ogre MagiGunnar
Ogre Magi
Muerta
MuertatOfu
52% · 23 games57% · 61 game
Skywrath MageLelis
Skywrath Mage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSeleri
53% · 111 games38% · 11 games
Ancient ApparitionYamSun
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct34:8
Gaimin Gladiators 50%nouns 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
49% · 19 games51% · 18 games
Lone DruidGunnar
Lone Druid
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
45% · 17 games47% · 93 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAce
53% · 74 games57% · 6 games
Ogre MagiMoo
Ogre Magi
Muerta
MuertatOfu
57% · 23 games52% · 44 games
Phantom AssassinK1
Phantom Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixSeleri
44% · 58 games57% · 30 games
GrimstrokeYamSun
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2