Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 44 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 40 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 32 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 34 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
Venomancersignature
DM · 18 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 17 games
Dark Willow
Taiga · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
643 picks · 688 bans
Rubick
517 picks · 342 bans
Doom
443 picks · 960 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 929 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 857 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 345 bans
Beastmaster
387 picks · 995 bans
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 858 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 32%
Hero pool strength59% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total87% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:8
Gaimin Gladiators 73%OG 27%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
TimbersawDM
Ember SpiritQuinn
RazorYuragi
UnderlordAce
Storm Spiritbzm
RubicktOfu
Keeper of the LightCeb
PugnaSeleri
Crystal MaidenTaiga
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Gaimin Gladiators 74%OG 26%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 18:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierQuinn
SlarkYuragi
UnderlordAce
Ember Spiritbzm
Broodmotherdyrachyo
TimbersawDM
MiranatOfu
EnchantressCeb
UndyingSeleri
Crystal MaidenTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 87%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2