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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 15 games
73%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 13 games
77%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 26 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 638 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 448 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 496 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
342 picks · 427 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 625 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 169 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 372 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 287 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
Gaimin Gladiators 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
48% · 234 games61% · 118 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
58% · 47 games54% · 99 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
48% · 163 games49% · 233 games
TinyNine
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
49% · 156 games53% · 157 games
MagnusAri
Magnus
Tusk
TusktOfu
42% · 235 games43% · 228 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Gaimin Gladiators 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
50% · 103 games53% · 123 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAce
50% · 217 games43% · 59 games
SniperNine
Sniper
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
54% · 24 games50% · 107 games
Earth SpiritWisper
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertatOfu
43% · 84 games57% · 45 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
53% · 111 games49% · 205 games
Crystal MaidenxNova
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed17:36
Gaimin Gladiators 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
48% · 213 games57% · 213 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
52% · 124 games48% · 239 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAce
48% · 259 games46% · 132 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertatOfu
42% · 121 game52% · 353 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
50% · 310 games55% · 90 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 67%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3