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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 23 games
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 12 games
67%
Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 12 games
58%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 36 games
56%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 22 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
yowaai · 19 games
32%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 404 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 562 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 518 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 220 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 672 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
397 picks · 445 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 592 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 917 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
Gaimin Gladiators 77%Passion UA 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
43% · 327 games55% · 55 games
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Ursa
UrsaWatson
53% · 130 games51% · 205 games
Invokerniche
Invoker
Doom
DoomAce
48% · 195 games51% · 35 games
SpectreCrystallize
Spectre
Muerta
MuertatOfu
52% · 215 games50% · 312 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Lich
LichSeleri
49% · 100 games50% · 360 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed25:34
Gaimin Gladiators 76%Passion UA 24%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Passion UA in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWatson
50% · 45 games52% · 147 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
41% · 336 games53% · 155 games
Magnusniche
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixAce
46% · 303 games57% · 148 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Lich
LichSeleri
50% · 112 games51% · 244 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntertOfu
48% · 29 games54% · 131 game
Ogre Magikreker
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct32:8
Gaimin Gladiators 77%Passion UA 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
52% · 395 games54% · 35 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallize
Phantom Assassin
Axe
AxeAce
47% · 48 games48% · 271 game
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
46% · 117 games44% · 121 game
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranatOfu
60% · 138 games52% · 210 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSeleri
55% · 156 games43% · 217 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3