DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 32 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 28 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 24 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 484 bans
Techies
574 picks · 621 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1101 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1226 bans
Ember Spirit
470 picks · 1043 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 675 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:27
Gaimin Gladiators 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
Naga Siren23savage
BroodmotherAce
LinaMikoto
Queen of PainQuinn
Anti-MageJabz
SnapfiretOfu
TechiesQ
Spirit BreakerSeleri
UndyingOli
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 51:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
LinaMikoto
Queen of PainQuinn
Abaddon23savage
BeastmasterAce
BatriderJabz
Skywrath MagetOfu
Spirit BreakerQ
UndyingSeleri
Elder TitanOli
Game 3prediction correct21:5
Gaimin Gladiators 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Medusa23savage
Monkey KingQuinn
Ember SpiritMikoto
UnderlordAce
BeastmasterJabz
TechiestOfu
Keeper of the LightQ
UndyingSeleri
LichOli
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 78%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3