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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
61%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 21 game
76%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Seleri · 17 games
47%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 17 games
76%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fantasy · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xwy · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
978 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
661 picks · 476 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
588 picks · 940 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
557 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 522 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 349 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
508 picks · 1115 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 354 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Gaimin Gladiators 62%Team Aster 38%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
45% · 210 games46% · 179 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
52% · 47 games47% · 369 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
52% · 394 games50% · 187 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranatOfu
55% · 421 game47% · 293 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
51% · 271 game54% · 315 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct24:8
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
53% · 201 game52% · 430 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomAce
46% · 146 games53% · 209 games
Shadow FiendMonet
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
45% · 217 games51% · 324 games
Primal BeastXwy
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubicktOfu
46% · 339 games51% · 59 games
Elder TitanFantasy
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
53% · 167 games48% · 48 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2