DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 47 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 29 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 27 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 24 games
Team Aster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 21 game
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 627 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 533 bans
Doom
537 picks · 1054 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1319 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1177 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 950 bans
Techies
455 picks · 466 bans
Mirana
438 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total67% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanAce
MorphlingMonet
Medusadyrachyo
Queen of PainSumaiL
Ember SpiritQuinn
Anti-MageXxs
RubicktOfu
BatriderBoBoKa
Shadow DemonSeleri
SilencerFantasy
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Storm SpiritSumaiL
MagnusAce
BloodseekerMonet
Void SpiritQuinn
Legion CommanderXxs
MiranatOfu
IoBoBoKa
LichSeleri
SilencerFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2