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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 30 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 25 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 23 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Quinn · 22 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Quinn · 21 game
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 19 games
68%

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 31 game
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 30 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 30 games
43%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Sneyking · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Skiter · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
542 picks · 569 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 422 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 487 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 864 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 324 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 881 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
307 picks · 674 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:43
Gaimin Gladiators 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
49% · 163 games59% · 112 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
52% · 55 games54% · 224 games
DoomATF
Doom
Undying
UndyingAce
41% · 106 games56% · 227 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalady
43% · 211 games51% · 90 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Muerta
MuertatOfu
44% · 321 game53% · 203 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct1:17
Gaimin Gladiators 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 13:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
45% · 162 games58% · 141 game
Monkey KingATF
Monkey King
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiAce
50% · 112 games49% · 170 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
46% · 38 games52% · 122 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Zeus
ZeusMalady
36% · 42 games59% · 76 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpirittOfu
45% · 232 games59% · 77 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2