The Bali Major 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Liquidloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 58 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 38 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 34 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 33 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 37 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 22 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Doomsignature
zai · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
668 picks · 706 bans
Rubick
613 picks · 426 bans
Doom
561 picks · 1116 bans
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 985 bans
Beastmaster
466 picks · 1163 bans
Enchantress
439 picks · 705 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 1113 bans
Disruptor
422 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:24
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
JuggernautmiCKe
TimbersawQuinn
Broodmotherzai
Dark SeerAce
Ember SpiritNisha
TechiestOfu
BatriderBoxi
DisruptorSeleri
LichiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed26:34
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
LeshracmiCKe
TimbersawAce
Primal BeastNisha
PangolierQuinn
Dark Seerzai
UndyingSeleri
RubickBoxi
LiontOfu
IoiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct18:3
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracQuinn
MedusamiCKe
UnderlordAce
Enigmazai
Slarkdyrachyo
SniperNisha
LiontOfu
WindrangerBoxi
IoSeleri
UndyingiNSaNiA
Game 4prediction correct16:9
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusadyrachyo
JuggernautmiCKe
BeastmasterAce
Lone DruidNisha
Storm SpiritQuinn
Primal Beastzai
LiontOfu
MiranaBoxi
EnchantressSeleri
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4