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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 27 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 25 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 41 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 624 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
493 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
447 picks · 396 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
424 picks · 470 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
411 picks · 849 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
387 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 359 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 539 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:26
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWatson
50% · 240 games53% · 192 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
55% · 223 games44% · 170 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
49% · 155 games46% · 306 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMalady
54% · 149 games50% · 216 games
Shadow ShamaniNSaNiA
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
51% · 247 games48% · 130 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
50% · 203 games47% · 253 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
52% · 110 games57% · 174 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
45% · 113 games46% · 38 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
47% · 153 games57% · 64 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Abaddon
AbaddonMalady
44% · 124 games52% · 174 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2