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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 15 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 13 games
46%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ekki · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 211 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 613 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
399 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 156 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 537 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 312 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 717 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 26%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Gaimin Gladiators 63%Team Secret 37%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
52% · 136 games49% · 189 games
LunaCrystallis
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightQuinn
59% · 190 games48% · 224 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
54% · 277 games49% · 282 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
40% · 189 games51% · 219 games
Shadow DemonPuppey
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
48% · 122 games
Game 2prediction correct37:17
Gaimin Gladiators 64%Team Secret 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
50% · 123 games50% · 78 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
54% · 37 games48% · 126 games
KunkkaBOOM
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
50% · 114 games50% · 238 games
BatriderPuppey
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
54% · 171 game50% · 133 games
GyrocopterThiolicor
Gyrocopter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
45% · 130 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2