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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 37 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 19 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 18 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 17 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 17 games
76%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 12 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
pLAnet · 9 games
56%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
pLAnet · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 711 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
423 picks · 312 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 636 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 865 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 997 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 504 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:25
Gaimin Gladiators 46%Team Tidebound 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 47:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
42% · 165 games46% · 13 games
Clinkzshiro
Clinkz
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
46% · 73 games52% · 248 games
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
44% · 193 games61% · 135 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Tinker
TinkerMalady
44% · 42 games53% · 190 games
Muertay`
Muerta
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
52% · 128 games53% · 15 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed14:13
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Team Tidebound 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
49% · 148 games47% · 253 games
Dragon Knightshiro
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
49% · 272 games47% · 117 games
RazorNothingToSay
Razor
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerQuinn
70% · 6 games58% · 198 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Tinker
TinkerMalady
50% · 40 games48% · 107 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
55% · 250 games39% · 41 game
Abaddony`
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed29:10
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Team Tidebound 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
50% · 238 games43% · 69 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
59% · 32 games42% · 92 games
RazorNothingToSay
Razor
Pudge
PudgeWatson
51% · 37 games58% · 102 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Muerta
MuertatOfu
48% · 233 games53% · 275 games
TinypLAnet
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
52% · 35 games46% · 37 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 55%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3