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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 34 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 22 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 21 game
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 17 games
47%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 25 games
72%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 13 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ari · 10 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 683 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
605 picks · 960 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 434 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
525 picks · 359 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
515 picks · 372 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 370 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
Gaimin Gladiators 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAce
49% · 276 games54% · 229 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
48% · 438 games50% · 227 games
Batriderbryle-
Batrider
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
50% · 275 games50% · 413 games
Death Prophetkasane
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingSeleri
47% · 350 games54% · 247 games
Monkey KingAri
Monkey King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagetOfu
47% · 142 games52% · 365 games
MiranaMoonMeander
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct20:3
Gaimin Gladiators 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 12:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
56% · 75 games54% · 85 games
Wraith KingTimado
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
47% · 339 games43% · 69 games
Sniperbryle-
Sniper
Doom
DoomAce
53% · 252 games50% · 311 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagetOfu
54% · 141 game47% · 365 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
52% · 289 games46% · 266 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2