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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TSMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 49 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 39 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 39 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 35 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Seleri · 35 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 32 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 31 game
71%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 46 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 17 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 14 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
404 picks · 194 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
319 picks · 462 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
279 picks · 251 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
279 picks · 463 bans
45%
Morphling
Morphling
260 picks · 493 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
257 picks · 439 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
248 picks · 434 bans
51%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
241 picks · 575 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total91% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Gaimin Gladiators 78%TSM 22%
The model gave 78% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
57% · 60 games48% · 52 games
Troll WarlordTimado
Troll Warlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerQuinn
50% · 73 games47% · 57 games
Razorkasane
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
53% · 48 games58% · 49 games
Earth Spiritbryle-
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
48% · 187 games44% · 87 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
53% · 29 games46% · 152 games
MarciAri
Marci
Game 2prediction missed8:31
Gaimin Gladiators 79%TSM 21%
The model gave 79% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by TSM in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
63% · 129 games42% · 126 games
Templar Assassinbryle-
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
45% · 109 games49% · 151 game
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
49% · 435 games52% · 230 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
44% · 198 games51% · 243 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
55% · 41 game52% · 162 games
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct37:12
Gaimin Gladiators 77%TSM 23%
The model gave 77% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
52% · 86 games50% · 55 games
Troll WarlordTimado
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
53% · 72 games49% · 126 games
Templar Assassinbryle-
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
40% · 76 games51% · 176 games
Primal Beastkasane
Primal Beast
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphettOfu
50% · 184 games57% · 33 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
52% · 33 games48% · 61 game
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 91%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3